Gold had a rough March, to say the least, but UBS isn’t backing down.
The Swiss bank reiterated its bullish call on the king metal, doubling down on gold, with prices averaging $5,000 per ounce in 2026, holding near $4,800 in 2027 and $4,250 in 2028.
However, even after a steep drop in March, UBS sees substantial upside ahead. That’s a notable call, given how quickly the market’s sentiment has shifted.
Gold fell roughly 14% in March, weighed down by rising bond yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and renewed inflation concerns amid skyrocketing oil prices. Naturally, these kinds of moves raise questions about whether the rally has run its course.
UBS views it differently, though.
The bank feels that the long-term story hasn’t changed, and the recent market weakness is more of a buying opportunity than a warning sign.
How has gold performed so far in April?
The safe-haven metal had its work cut out for it in April, after posting its worst month since 2008 in March as hopes for rate cuts faded, Reuters noted.
For context, Reuters market data snapshot (April 4) revealed that spot gold traded at $4,675.67.
Gold entered the month with aplomb, rebounding 3.2% on March 31 at $4,652.31 an ounce. It then jumped again on April 1 to $4,784.22, the highest it has been since March 19, as the U.S.dollar continued weakening and hopes for Middle East de-escalation picked up.
Related: Veteran analyst sends message to Tesla investors after Q1 miss
However, that move didn’t hold up as cleanly as investors had hoped.
Gold tanked on April 2 as the dollar firmed, oil spiked rose above $100, and inflation worries crept back up after President Donald Trump offered no clear timeline for wrapping up the Iran conflict, MarketScreener indicated.
So far, April has felt like a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and higher-for-longer rate fears.
Gold and silver returns over time
- Gold 30 days: -8.25%
- Gold 6 months: +17.73%
- Gold 1 year: +53.20%
- Gold 5 years: +168.00%
- Gold 20 years: +691.88%
- Silver 30 days: -10.99%
- Silver 6 months: +49.69%
- Silver 1 year: +145.96%
- Silver 5 years: +193.55%
- Silver 20 years: +520.28%
Source: GoldPrice.org
UBS doubles down on gold’s long-term case
UBS lays out the case for leaning into the weakness.
In a recent note to the client, the bank made it clear that the recent pullback doesn’t change the bigger picture.
“The risk that gold extends its bull run for a couple more years is rising,” UBS said, pointing to a macro setup that still favors the shiny yellow metal.
Related: IRS adds Palantir tech to find tax cheats
The bank argues that if see any signs of sluggishness in global growth, that may trigger fiscal or monetary stimulus, which would most likely translate into robust gains for gold.
Lower real rates and robust liquidity will push investors toward non-yielding assets, such as bullion.
Moreover, the recent dip is more of a positioning reset, according to UBS.
“We think any pullbacks present opportunities for investors to build positions,” UBS added, underscoring the view that such dips need to be bought, rather than feared.
Consequently, UBS hasn’t walked back on its broader outlook expecting gold to jump to new highs this year, even after cutting its 2026 average price forecast slightly.
Raa/NurPhoto/Getty Images
Wall Street’s targets on gold
Gold’s recent sluggishness hasn’t shaken Wall Street’s long-term conviction in the shiny yellow metal.
The top banks still see significant upside, even amid short-term volatility that keeps investors on edge.
- J.P. Morgan (2026 year-end): $6,300
- Deutsche Bank (2026): $6,000
- Société Générale (year-end): $6,000
- Goldman Sachs (end-2026): $5,400
- HSBC (first half of 2026): $5,000
What the gold flow data are saying
Gold’s macro backdrop is still impressive, though we’ve seen the speculative crowd cool off a bit.
The latest numbers suggest that official-sector demand remains in the green, while ETF buyers continue to add exposure.
Futures traders are still trimming their bullish bets, but overall, it appears more like a sentiment reset than a break in demand.
- Central banks are still buying, according to Gold.org. The banks scooped up a net 19 metric tons of gold in February, after netting 5 tons in January. That is tracking behind the previous 12-month average of 27 tons, underscoring that the broader reserve-diversification trend remains intact.
- ETF money is still coming in, Gold.org indicated. Global physically backed gold ETFs added $5.3 billion in February, taking their streak to nine straight months of inflows. On top of that, holdings jumped by 26 tons to a record 4,171 tons, while assets under management surged to an all-time high of $701 billion.
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) positioning has cooled off, but remains bullish. In COMEX gold futures, non-commercial traders held 207,602 long contracts and 44,400 short contracts as of March 31, leaving a net long of 163,202 contracts. Though that was below the 5,125 contracts from the previous week, the market clearly de-risked.
Next big tests for gold
Gold’s next macro check-in will be coming in the next few days.
The results matter because they show how the data affect rate-cut odds, yields, and the dollar.
- Fed minutes, April 8: The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in March. If the minutes point to the committee leaning more hawkish, that could potentially pressure gold by bumping yield expectations.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI), April 10: The latest CPI report pointed to headline inflation at 2.4% year over year and core inflation at 2.5% in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated. If we see a softer March print, that would lead to renewed easing hopes, paving the way for stronger gold performance.
- Jobs report, May 8: March payrolls rose 178,000, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. A cooler labor report will naturally support gold.
Related: Powell sends message on U.S. economy and AI-related job loss fear
