Silver does not move quietly. When it moves, it tends to say something. This week, it said quite a lot.
Silver surged over 5% to $76.70 per ounce on April 8, its highest level since March 18, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, according to Trading Economics. The ceasefire eased fears of energy-driven inflation and shifted rate expectations, giving silver room to breathe after weeks of heavy selling pressure.
The move matters because of how far silver had fallen. The metal had dropped 18% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, and as much as 37% from its all-time high of $121.64 reached on January 29, according to Finance Magnates.
A single week does not erase that damage. But it changes the conversation.
Why silver fell so hard in the first place
The conflict created an unusual problem for silver. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil surging, which fed inflation expectations and pushed Treasury yields higher.
That strengthened the dollar and made rate cuts look less likely. Silver, which pays no income, loses relative appeal when rates stay elevated.
More Gold:
- Gold just saw its biggest decline since 1983: what’s next
- Gold and silver bugs face grim reality check
- Gold’s price is falling fast: Here’s what comes next
That monetary policy pressure overwhelmed silver’s safe-haven instincts. The metal that gained 148% in 2025 found itself trapped between its role as a defensive asset and its sensitivity to the rate environment. The ceasefire, by easing inflation pressure and reducing the odds of a Fed rate hike, released some of that tension.
The dual identity that makes silver different from gold
Silver is not just a precious metal. It is also an industrial one. That dual identity makes it more volatile than gold, but it also gives it more potential when both investment and industrial demand are pulling in the same direction.
Solar panels account for 16% of global silver demand, while electric vehicles account for another 2.9%, according to Strategic Metals Invest. Electronics, medical devices, and other manufacturing uses add further structural support.
China’s silver imports reached their highest level in eight years in early 2026, reflecting that industrial appetite, Finance Magnates reported.
The supply side adds another layer. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026 at approximately 67 million ounces. COMEX registered silver inventory has fallen to 76 million ounces, representing just 13.4% coverage of open interest. Physical supply is tight.
Hoppe/Getty Images
What the next few weeks could look like for silver
The near-term outlook is volatile rather than linear. Most analysts see silver trading in the $60 to $80 range over the coming weeks, reacting sharply to each new development on the ceasefire, inflation data, and Fed signals.
The gold/silver ratio is hovering around 64, suggesting silver remains cheap relative to gold on a historical basis. That ratio has historically compressed when silver catches a genuine bid, implying silver could outperform gold if the current momentum continues.
Three paths are plausible from here. Silver could extend its rally if macro uncertainty persists and industrial demand stays firm. It could consolidate in a range as the market digests the recent gains. Or it could pull back if the ceasefire holds firmly and inflation pressure eases further, reducing the safe-haven bid.
Key figures shaping the silver outlook:
- Silver high this week: $76.70/oz., up over 5% on April 8
- Silver all-time high: $121.64 on January 29, 2026
- Decline since war began February 28: Approximately 18%
- Projected 2026 supply deficit: Approximately 67 million ounces
- COMEX registered inventory: 76 million oz., 13.4% of open interest coverage
- Solar share of global silver demand: 16%; EVs: 2.9%
What analysts say about the months ahead
Longer-term forecasts diverge sharply depending on the scenario. Reuters projects a $79.50 average price, Bank of America targets a range of $135 to $309, and Citigroup has set a target of $150 to $170, according to Finance Magnates.
The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty. The bullish case rests on persistent supply deficits, growing industrial demand from solar and EVs, and a potential return of investment interest if inflation eases and rate cuts eventually arrive. In that environment, silver could move well above current levels.
The bearish case is simpler. If the ceasefire holds, inflation cools, and the dollar firms, silver loses its safe-haven and rate-cut tailwinds simultaneously. That could keep the metal rangebound or push it back toward the lower end of near-term support.
The honest answer is that silver is a market worth watching closely right now. One good week is not a trend. But the structural case, including tight supply, surging industrial demand, and a metal still trading 37% below its highs, is hard to ignore.
Related: Bank of America revamps silver stock price target for 2026
