This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: UK unemployment, inflation, manufacturing, and services PMI
Tuesday
- British unemployment at 06:00 AM GMT for February is expected to hold steady at 5.2%, while the claimants are expected to decrease to 21,400 for March compared to the previous recording of 24,700. The data might already be priced in, but any surprise in the actual numbers might create volatility across all pound-related pairs.
Wednesday
- UK inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT. The consensus is for an increase from 3% to 3..3% in March. If the consensus is correct, then it would be the highest for 2026 and could potentially create some short-term minor gains for the quid since it could influence the decisions of the Bank of England at their next meeting.
Thursday
- Flash British manufacturing PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. The expectations for the figure are at 49.5 compared to the previous 51. UK manufacturing has managed to remain above the 50-point mark since November, but if the expectations are confirmed, then it might create some short-term pressure for the pound.
- Flash British services PMI at 08:30 AM GMT. Market participants are expecting the publication to come out at 49.9 points compared to the 50.5 points of March. The services sector in the UK has managed to remain above the 50-point mark for the last 20 months (excluding April 2025, when it was at around 49). This is why this time around the services PMI publication is rather important because it will show how resilient the services sector in the UK is.
USOIL, daily
Crude oil surged sharply after the US seized an Iranian ship and tensions escalated around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent jumped nearly 8%, reversing prior losses, as Iran moved to shut the Strait again, raising fears of a major supply disruption.
The market is now pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, but not fully committing to a worst-case scenario. If the situation drags on without resolution, prices are expected to grind higher into the $105–$115 range, driven by constant headline risk.
The key issue is physical supply, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz close to a standstill, the market is facing a real supply shock. That’s shifting pricing power away from paper markets toward actual availability, keeping upward pressure on crude.
On the technical side, the price found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger bands and is currently rebounding and testing a major technical support area on the chart consisting of the 50-day simple moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, making the area around $87.50 an important level. The Stochastic oscillator is near the extreme oversold levels, hinting that we might see a bullish correction in the upcoming sessions, while the moving averages are validating the overall bullish trend in the market. For the time being, the levels of $81 and $94 seems to be the significant areas of support and resistance, respectively, but since oil is greatly affected by geopolitical tensions, we might get significant price fluctuations as the conflicting countries unfold their next moves.
Gold-dollar, daily
Gold dropped after the latest US–Iran escalation, not because risk disappeared, but because the type of risk shifted. The seizure of an Iranian ship and renewed tension in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher, which in turn boosted inflation expectations and the dollar.
Even though geopolitics is heating up, gold is being pressured by rising yields and a stronger USD, as markets start pricing in the idea that central banks may stay tighter for longer due to the energy-driven inflation shock. That’s the key driver behind the selloff, not a lack of demand for safety.
The broader picture is messy but clear: gold is stuck between two opposing forces. On one side, geopolitical uncertainty should support it. On the other hand, higher inflation expectations and delayed rate cuts are capping upside. That’s why the current behavior is “buy dips, not chase rallies,” with prices likely to stay range-bound rather than trending aggressively higher.
From a technical point of view, gold is trading between the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day simple moving average. The Bollinger bands have contracted slightly but are still quite apart, showing that volatility is there to support any sharp moves in the short-term while the moving averages are validating an overall bullish trend in the market despite the sell-off at the beginning of March. The Stochastic oscillator is at neutral levels, while the dynamic resistance (the area between the two moving averages), being just above the current pricing level, is all pointing to a consolidation phase for now.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness or Finance Feeds.
