There’s a recurring fear in fintech circles that the ground beneath Visa Inc. could eventually shift. The worry is that a mix of cryptocurrencies, digital wallets, and AI-driven payment rails might bypass traditional card networks altogether, potentially turning today’s dominance into something that belongs to a pre-digital era.
But Visa (V) just reported a quarter that made that fear look increasingly misplaced.
The 67-year-old payments Goliath posted fiscal second-quarter 2026 results that beat expectations and raised its full-year outlook, sending the stock up 5% in a single session. But the more interesting story wasn’t the beat. It was where the growth was coming from.
Value-Added Services grew 27% year over year. Stablecoin settlement volumes ran at a $7 billion annualized rate. Also, the core banking deal with Wells Fargo surprised even Visa’s most attentive analysts.
“The durability of Visa’s network remains underappreciated,” Morgan Stanley said in its note, raising its price target to $415 from $411 while maintaining its overweight rating.
Visa CEO Ryan McInerney has consistently argued that every new payment technology ultimately runs through Visa’s infrastructure rather than displacing it. Quarter after quarter, the company keeps producing evidence that he’s right.
Visa’s second-quarter 2026 results delivered across every major dimension
- Net revenue of $11.2 billion, up 17% year over year, or 16% on a constant-dollar basis
- GAAP net income of $6.0 billion, or $3.14 per share
- Non-GAAP net income of $6.3 billion, or $3.31 per share
- Share repurchases and dividends of $9.2 billion
- Board authorization of a new $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program
Source: Visa Second Quarter 2026 Results and Morgan Stanley Report
U.S. spending volume accelerated 130 basis points to 7.4% growth in the quarter, according to Morgan Stanley’s note. Also, it was previewed by bank card data, and is likely to have received some temporary benefit from tax refunds.
Cross-border volume growth came in at 9% in April, with a one-point drag from Ramadan timing that management said would have been 10% otherwise. U.S. inbound travel and cross-border e-commerce are both improving, and demand for FIFA World Cup travel is building as a visible near-term catalyst.
Morgan Stanley raised its fiscal year 2026 and 2027 estimates following the print.
- FY26 adjusted EPS raised to $13.07 from $12.88
- FY27 adjusted EPS raised to $14.86 from $14.71
- FY26 net revenue growth forecast raised to 13.3% from 11.3%
Source: Morgan Stanley Report
Visa Inc. raised its full-year 2026 guidance to low-double-digit to low-teens net revenue growth and low-teens EPS growth, up from prior low-double-digit forecasts.
The upgrade was driven by stronger Value-Added Services performance, higher currency volatility assumptions, and World Cup-related client demand, according to Morgan Stanley.
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Visa’s VAS grew 27%, and Morgan Stanley says the market still underestimates them
The most structurally important number in Visa’s quarter wasn’t a volume figure. It was the Value-Added Services growth rate.
The key number in Visa Inc.’s quarter wasn’t volume. It was Value-Added Services (VAS). VAS grew 27% year-over-year and now makes up about 30% of revenue, spanning fraud tools, advisory, and marketing services.
Morgan Stanley’s conviction is that VAS demand is actively increasing, not plateauing. Clients are seeking more fraud tools and World Cup-related marketing programs, and the pipeline of use cases continues to expand. The firm is confident Visa can sustain VAS growth in the 20%-plus range over the medium term, its note confirmed.
A signal of how far VAS ambitions now extend came from an unexpected source. Wells Fargo plans to adopt Pismo (Visa’s acquired core banking platform), signaling a broader push into core infrastructure beyond initial expectations, the firm said.
Visa stablecoin and agentic commerce positioning turn disruption risk to growth opportunity
The fintech disruption narrative around Visa typically focuses on what could displace the network. Visa is increasingly focused on owning the infrastructure that new payment technologies run on instead.
The stablecoin strategy is the clearest example. Visa has built its approach around three pillars. The stablecoin-linked card on-ramps and off-ramps, settlement and money movement, and blockchain infrastructure. In fact, the numbers are beginning to reflect the investment, according to Morgan Stanley’s note.
- 160 stablecoin-linked card programs globally as of Q2
- Stablecoin card volumes up 200% year over year, driven by spending in emerging markets
- Stablecoin settlement annualized run-rate reaching $7 billion, up more than 50% from Q1
Source: Morgan Stanley Report
Critically, stablecoin economics closely mirror traditional card economics for Visa, meaning the revenue model is familiar, and the growth is largely incremental.
On agentic commerce, Visa Inc. launched Intelligent Commerce Connect, an AI-focused payments on-ramp set for June 2026, and introduced a CLI tool enabling payments without traditional checkout.
Morgan Stanley said Visa’s vast network, 175M+ merchants, 5B credentials, and 900M daily transactions give it a hard-to-replicate edge in agentic payments.
What Morgan Stanley’s $415 Visa target means for you
Morgan Stanley set a $415 price target on Visa Inc. by applying a 27x P/E multiple to its CY27 adjusted EPS estimate of $15.37, implying earnings-led compounding with modest multiple expansion as stablecoin and agentic opportunities are seen as incremental.
The firm argues Visa remains underappreciated, citing its near-undisruptible network moat, steady spending across income groups, no weakness in lower-income cohorts, and a FIFA World Cup demand wave through 2026.
Despite geopolitical and macro volatility, Visa’s fiscal Q2 reinforces its safe-haven growth status, continuing to monetize global spending across evolving payment formats.
Related: Visa CEO sends blunt message on AI and blockchain
