For months, years, investors have treated Nike (NKE) like a fading giant. A 62-year-old American athletic footwear and apparel corporation headquartered near Beaverton, Oregon.
Its stock closed just under $55 on March 12, down nearly 25% in the last 12 months and down 14% year-to-date.
But now one major Wall Street firm is signaling something different.
Analysts at Barclays upgraded Nike’s stock to “Overweight” and lifted their price target to $73 from $64, arguing the company may have reached what they call a “fundamental bottom,” as seen in Yahoo Finance.
That’s a bold claim for a stock that’s been stuck in a multi-year downtrend.
But now the real question you are probably asking is: Is the recovery finally starting? And if so, how high can we get?
Robert Way VaShutterstock
Why analysts think Nike’s worst days may be over
Barclays’ upgrade centers on a simple idea: investor pessimism may have peaked.
The firm pointed to several developments suggesting the company’s financial trajectory could be stabilizing.
Among the key factors were,
- Operational improvements inside the company
- Early positive financial indicators in recent results
- Management’s disciplined turnaround strategy
Leadership changes are part of that story. Why? Nike appointed longtime company veteran Elliott Hill as CEO in late 2024. This was after a difficult period marked by declining sales and rising competition. But again, we both know that even great coaches go back to the drawing board, and implement their ideas, and get results after some time.
Hill has framed the turnaround as a long-term rebuild. Here is what he had to say in the earnings call for the Q226 financial results:
Hill continued, “We are making progress in the areas we prioritized first and remain confident in the actions we’re taking to drive the long-term growth and profitability of our brands,” underscoring that the company is still working to restore growth and profitability.
In fact, analysts believe improvements in North America could soon begin offsetting persistent challenges in China and tariff pressures that have weighed on the stock in recent quarters.
Latest earnings show early signs of stabilization
Looking at Nike’s most recent quarterly report released on Dec. 18, 2025, it already hinted at a shift. The 62-year-old giant reported fiscal Q2 2026 results, with a few numbers catching analysts’ attention:
- Revenue: $12.4 billion, up 1% year over year
- Earnings per share: $0.53, beating estimates of $0.37
- Wholesale revenue: up 8%, reflecting renewed retail partnerships
- NIKE Direct sales: down 8% to $4.6 billion
- Gross margin: 40.6%, down 300 basis points
Margins remain under pressure due to markdowns and currency effects. But the wholesale growth suggests Nike is recalibrating its strategy after leaning heavily into direct-to-consumer channels.
More Retail Stocks:
- You won’t believe what Coca-Cola just did with its coffee brand
- Costco reveals a new approach that could reshape the chain
- Shoppers furious at grocery chain’s new anti‑theft rule
That shift could matter more than it first appears. The reason? Wholesale relationships often provide steadier volume and inventory management during retail slowdowns.
What does the chart tell us about Nike stock?
Beyond fundamentals, Nike’s chart tells a story of its own. Looking at a monthly timeframe, NKE has been trapped in a long-term descending trendline since peaking around $179 in November 2021. It has tested that trendline multiple times. including in August 2025, October 2025, and February 2026.
Source: TradingView
Each attempt failed to trigger a sustained breakout.
Right now, a key support level sits around $50. That level has become a crucial support level for anyone watching the next move.
So what happens if buyers step in?
Even after the Barclays call, technical traders are waiting for something more. A confluence for Longs towards the target. A rejection at the $50 level and strong bullish momentum could push the stock toward:
- $60 as the first resistance level
- $70 as a broader recovery target
- $73 – $74, roughly aligning with Barclays’ new price target
That scenario would represent a major shift in momentum. But it depends on whether sentiment continues improving. And more so, if this big catalyst signals the same.
The next big catalyst arrives on March 31
Investors won’t have to wait long for the next major test. Nike reports fiscal third-quarter earnings on March 31, 2026, and expectations are building.
That report could reveal whether the recovery dream is still a valid one in the near term, or still needs time.
What to watch closely:
- Margin recovery progress
- Wholesale channel momentum
- China demand trends
- Inventory levels and pricing discipline
Because here’s the reality: Nike remains one of the most powerful brands in global sportswear, generating about $46 billion in annual revenue.
But even iconic brands must prove they can adapt. If the next earnings report confirms improving fundamentals, NKE’s long bear market could finally face its toughest challenge yet. And if wondering whether Nike is heading back toward $70, the answer may start taking shape at the end of this month.
Related: Kohl’s CEO tells customers major revamp is on the way
