For weeks, the White House said the surge in gas prices was temporary. On April 13, the president changed that message.
Speaking by phone on Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked directly whether oil and gas prices would be lower before the November midterm elections. “I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be. Or the same. Or maybe a little bit higher. But it should be around the same, I think this won’t be that much longer,” he said, according to Newsweek.
The comments came hours after Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapsed and Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
That is a striking admission. It means the administration is no longer promising relief at the pump before the November midterm elections.
How bad gas prices have gotten
The national average for gasoline now sits at slightly over $4 per gallon, according to NBC News. That is up more than 38% since the conflict with Iran began on February 28, according to Time.
Gas prices topped $4 per gallon on March 31 for the first time since 2022, according to CBS News.
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In March alone, gas prices rose 21.2% from February, the largest single-month jump at the pump since 1967, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data via CBS News. Diesel has climbed even harder, reaching $5.62 per gallon, up nearly 49% since the war began, according to Time.
In California, the average hit $5.87 per gallon as of April 6, according to Time. The state relies heavily on oil imports and carries higher fuel taxes than the rest of the country.
Why prices have stayed so high
The core problem is the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil flows through the waterway, and it has been largely closed since Iran blockaded it in early March. Analysts say prices will not meaningfully fall until shipping resumes.
Brent crude was trading at $73 a barrel before the war began. It hit $95.88 as of April 10, according to CBS News. With the Islamabad talks now collapsed and a U.S. naval blockade in effect, the path to lower crude prices has narrowed further.
“The president doesn’t have a whole lot of levers,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, according to CNBC.
The administration has taken some steps. The EPA issued a waiver allowing higher-ethanol E15 fuel to be sold starting May 1. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said plans are in place to bring more diesel to market, CNBC reported.
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What high gas prices are doing to consumers
The pain extends well beyond the pump. Energy prices rose 10.9% in March alone, driving the annual inflation rate to 3.3%, according to CBS News.
Real wages fell 0.6% in March as earnings failed to keep pace, according to NBC News. Consumer sentiment fell to a record low in early April, according to the University of Michigan survey via NBC News.
Fuel surcharges are now spreading across the economy. FedEx was charging a 26.5% fuel surcharge on ground and home deliveries as of April 6, according to CNN. The U.S. Postal Service added an 8% fee on some packages. Amazon and airlines have announced similar surcharges, according to NBC News.
“It will take months for the higher energy prices, along with plastics, packaging, etc., to flow into the core rate,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners.
Key figures on gas prices and the economic impact:
- National average gas price: slightly over $4 per gallon
- Price increase since war began: up 38%
- March monthly gas price increase: 21.2%, largest since 1967
- Diesel price: $5.62 per gallon, up nearly 49%
- March annual inflation rate: 3.3%
- Real wages in March: fell 0.6%
- Brent crude before war: $73/barrel; now approximately $96
- Midterm elections: November 2026
The political stakes heading into November
Gas prices are one of the most visible forms of inflation for voters. They show up on large signs at every street corner. They hit household budgets every week.
Trump’s own admission that prices may not fall before November is a significant political concession.
Trump’s comments came after weeks of mixed messaging. The president had previously framed the price surge as temporary. Acknowledging that relief may not arrive before the midterms shifts that narrative significantly, according to Newsweek.
GasBuddy’s De Haan had said during the brief ceasefire period that the national average could fall back below $4 if the situation stabilized, according to CBS News. With talks now collapsed and a naval blockade in place, that scenario looks increasingly unlikely in the near term.
For consumers, the message from the president is now clear. Budget for higher fuel costs. And do not count on relief before November.
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